Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

Couverture
SAGE, 13 avr. 2001 - 372 pages
5 Avis
First Edition, Winner of the prestigious William James Award from the American Psychological Association

An understanding of the principles of rational decision making can help students improve the quality of their lives. Intended as an introductory textbook, the material in Rational Choice in an Uncertain World is not only of scholarly interest, but practical as well. Created specifically for courses on judgement and decision-making, this book makes research readily accessible to both undergraduate and graduate students. This Second Edition of the award-winning book, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (1988) by Robyn M. Dawes, is sure to interest and enlighten students at all levels.

This new edition features:

New student friendly chapter introductions as well as conclusions and cross-references between chapters.

Award-winning authors are respected professors with over 30 years of experience in the field.

Practical, everyday examples from such areas as finance, medicine, law, and engineering.

Comprehensive and up-to-date information keep this edition abreast of the changing ideas within the discipline

Additional discussion of the descriptive, psychological models of decision making to expand upon the original emphasis on normative, rational, `Expected Utility Theory' models.

Equipped with this knowledge and an understanding of the principles of rational decision making, both undergraduate and graduate students can help improve the quality of their choices and, thus, their life.

 

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Table des matières

Thinking and Deciding
1
What Is Decision Making?
25
A General Framework for Judgment
47
Judgments From Memory
73
Anchoring and Adjustment
99
Judgment by Similarity
111
Judging by Scenarios and Explanations
129
Thinking About Randomness and Causation
153
Complex Values and Attitudes
227
A Normative Rational Decision Theory
249
A Descriptive Psychological Decision Theory
289
In Praise of Uncertainty
313
The Principles of Probability Theory
339
Beliefs That Violate the Principles of Probability Theory
347
Index
357
About the Authors
371

Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
167
Simple Values
199

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Expressions et termes fréquents

Fréquemment cités

Page 313 - I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill ; but time and chance happeneth to them all.
Page 113 - Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Page 47 - I do not regret this journey, which has shown that Englishmen can endure hardships, help one another, and meet death with as great a fortitude as ever in the past. We took risks ; we knew we took them. Things have come out against us, and therefore we have no cause for complaint, but bow to the will of Providence, determined still to do our best to the last.
Page 114 - ... was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Linda is a teacher in elementary school. Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes. Linda is active in the feminist movement.
Page xi - For the great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived, and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Page 167 - They say that Understanding ought to work by the rules of right reason. These rules are, or ought to be, contained in Logic ; but the actual science of Logic is conversant at present only with things either certain, impossible, or entirely doubtful, none of which (fortunately) we have to reason on. Therefore the true Logic for this world is the Calculus of Probabilities, which takes account of the magnitude of the probability (which is, or which ought to be in a reasonable man's mind).

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À propos de l'auteur (2001)

Cass R. Sunstein is the Karl N. Llewellyn Distinguished Service Professor of Jurisprudence in the Law School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago.
Reid Hastie is a professor of behavioral science in the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago.
John W. Payne is the Joseph J. Ruvane Jr. Professor of Management, professor of psychology, and research professor of statistics and decision sciences at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.
David A. Schkade is the Herbert D. Kelleher Regents Professor of Business at the University of Texas at Austin.
W. Kip Viscusi is the John F. Cogan Jr. Professor of Law and Economics at Harvard Law School.

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