On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios

accept action actually agonistic all-out allies analysts areas argue aspects attempt avoid balance of terror bargaining behavior believe bombing capability central wars Chapter cities civilians concept conflict consider conventional counterforce counterforce attack countervalue course crises crisis Cuba damage dangerous de-escalation decision-makers declaration defense deliberate destroy destruction détente deterrence discussion East Germany effect enemy eruption escalation ladder escalatory European evacuation example exemplary attacks fear game of chicken German Herman Kahn Hudson Institute important increase intense issues kind least less limited Luftwaffe major military missiles nation NATO negotiations normal North Vietnam nuclear war nuclear weapons objectives opponent options particular peace perhaps phony war political population possible pre-emptive pressure probably programs provocation raids reasonable relatively reprisal retaliation risks scenario seems serious side side's slow-motion Soviet Union spasm strategic forces strike tactics targets thermonuclear threat threaten thresholds tion United violence World War II