Seeing the Invisible: National Security Intelligence in an Uncertain AgeWorld Scientific, 2007 - 246 pages Intelligence is critical to ensuring national security, especially with asymmetric threats making up most of the new challenges. Knowledge, rather than power, is the only weapon that can prevail in a complex and uncertain environment awash with asymmetric threats, some known, many currently unknown. This book shows how such a changing national security environment has had profound implications for the strategic intelligence requirements of states in the 21st century.The book shows up the fallacy underlying the age-old assumption that intelligence agencies must do a better job of connecting the dots and avoiding future failures. It argues that this cannot and will not happen for a variety of reasons. Instead of seeking to predict discrete future events, the strategic intelligence community must focus rather on risk-based anticipatory warnings concerning the nature and impact of a range of potential threats. In this respect, the book argues for a full and creative exploitation of technology to support ? but not supplant ? the work of the strategic intelligence community, and illustrates this ideal with reference to Singapore's path-breaking Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) program. |
Table des matières
1 The plan of the book | 1 |
2 Understanding National Security | 7 |
3 The Complex and Uncertain International security environment | 23 |
4 Strategic Intelligence Assessment and surprise attaks | 45 |
Common Problems | 63 |
6 Reinforcing intelligence Failures | 89 |
7 Technology and intelligence | 97 |
The Weakness of centralized intelligence | 111 |
11 National security lntelligence and the Front Line Requirements | 147 |
12 Open Source intelligence | 157 |
The Problem Areas | 179 |
The Areas of Strength | 189 |
15 The singpore Risk Assessment and Horizon scanning Process | 199 |
16 Rethinking National Security lntelligence | 227 |
National security and Education Thing Across the Boundaries of Time and specialization | 237 |
239 | |
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Expressions et termes fréquents
academic al-Qaeda Allen Dulles analysis areas Assessment and Horizon asymmetric threats Bangladesh bombings bureaucratic capabilities Chapter complex and uncertain computers crisis critical Cynefin deal decision makers developed effective emerging exist explosives faint signals fatwa front lines global Horizon Scanning human imagery individuals intelligence agencies intelligence analysts intelligence community intelligence failures intelligence problems issue knowledge lack leaders and decision major methodology military nanotechnology Nanyang Technological University national security intelligence networks Open Source Intelligence operate OSINT outcome pandemics patterns policy makers political possible Quiggin RAHS process resilience response ricin Risk Assessment Robert David Steele role Sherman Kent Singapore Snowden stove-piping strategic intelligence assessment strategic surprise structure and organization Sun Tzu term terrorist terrorist attacks terrorist groups theory threat actors Thucydides transnational terrorism trends understanding University Press variables vulnerability Walter Laqueur warning weapons World of Secrets