Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for MacroeconomicsRoman Frydman, Edmund S. Phelps Princeton University Press, 2013 - 432 pages This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. |
Table des matières
Which Way Forward for Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis? | 1 |
Expectational Coordination Failures and Market Volatility | 49 |
Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics | 68 |
Keynes on Knowledge Expectations and Rationality | 112 |
The Imperfect Knowledge Imperative in Modern Macroeconomics | 130 |
Heterogeneous Gain Learning and Long Swings in Asset Prices | 169 |
Opening Models of Asset Prices and Risk to Nonroutine Change | 207 |
Animal Spirits Persistent Unemployment | 251 |
Indeterminacies in Wage and Asset Price Expectations | 277 |
The Long Swings of Employment Investment and Asset Prices | 301 |
Imperfect Knowledge Asset Price Swings | 328 |
Stabilization Policies and Economic Growth | 351 |
Swings and the RulesDiscretion Balance | 373 |
Principled Policymaking in an Uncertain World | 389 |
Contributors | 415 |