Le cygne noir: la puissance de l'imprévisible

Couverture
Les Belles Lettres, 2010 - 496 pages
Quel est le point commun entre l'invention de la roue, Pompei, le krach boursier de 1987, Harry Potter et Internet? Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train? Que peuvent nous apprendre les amants de Catherine de Russie sur les probabilites? Pourquoi les previsionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs? Ce livre revele tout des Cygnes Noirs, ces evenements aleatoires, hautement improbables, qui jalonnent notre vie: ils ont un impact enorme, sont presque impossibles a prevoir, et pourtant, a posteriori, nous essayons toujours de leur trouver une explication rationnelle. Dans cet ouvrage eclairant, plein d'esprit d'impertinence et bien souvent prophetique, Taleb nous exhorte a ne pas tenir compte des propos de certains experts , et nous montre comment cesser de tout prevoir ou comment tirer parti de l'incertitude.

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À propos de l'auteur (2010)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb was born in 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon. He is a researcher, essayist, trader, epistemologist, and former practitioner of mathematical finance. Taleb received his bachelors and masters degree in science from the University of Paris. He holds an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Ph.D. in Management Science from the University of Paris- Dauphine. Taleb began his financial mathematics career in several of New York City's Wall Street firms before becoming a scholar in the epistemology of chance events, randomness, and the unknown. Taleb's book, Fooled by Randomness, was translated into 23 languages. His book, The Black Swan, was translated into 27 languages and spent several months on the New York Times Bestseller list. Taleb is a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at Polytechnic Institute of New York University and visiting professor of Marketing (Cognitive Science) at London Business School. Taleb has also taught at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, Courant Institute of New York University, and the Wharton Business School Financial Institutions Center. His title Bed of Procrustes made the N.Y. Times Bestseller List for 2010 and his title Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder made The 2012 New York Times Bestseller List.

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