Climate change science. Volume 1, The physical climate : a modern synthesis

CONTENTSINTRODUCTION1.1 Introduction to Global Warming1.2 Greenhouse Effect1.3 Climate Sensitivity1.4 Average Global Temperature from 1880 to 20091.5 Carbon Dioxide1.6 Global Warming, Climate, and Weather1.6.1 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1979-20051.6.2 Impacts of Global Warming1.7 Timescales, Positive Feedbacks, and Tipping Points1.8 Energy and Climate Policy1.8.1 Energy Choices1.9 Forcings and Feedbacks1.9.1 Earth’s Albedo1.9.2 Irradiance1.10 Energy Budget1.11 Affected Weather1.12 Hockey Stick ControversyAdditional ReadingPART I – SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLES AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD2 – SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLESAbstractKey WordsThings to KnowIntroduction2.1 Internet Searches2.2 The Warming Earth: Heat and the Principles of Thermodynamics2.2.1 The Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics2.2.2 The First Law of Thermodynamics2.2.3 The Second Law of Thermodynamics2.2.4 The Third Law of Thermodynamics2.3 Climate Scientists2.3.1 Scientific Laws and Climate Scientists2.4 Scientific Jargon2.5 Communication between Scientists and the Public2.6 The Concept of Time2.7 From Hothouse to Icehouse2.8 Earth’s Energy Imbalance2.9 An Introduction to Science2.9.1 Reasons to Study Science2.9.2 The Philosophy of Science2.9.3 Early History of Science2.9.4 Aristotle (384-322 BC)2.10 Early Scientists2.10.1 Pliny the Elder (23 AD – 79 AD) 2.10.2 Claudius Ptolemy (c. AD 90 – c. AD 168)2.10.3 Nicolaus Copernicus (1473 – 1543)2.10.4 Galileo Galilei (1564 – 1642) 2.10.5 Francis Bacon (1561 – 1626)2.10.6 Johannes Kepler and Tycho Brahe2.10.7 Isaac Newton 2.11 Empiricism2.12 Inductive Logic2.13 Multiple Working Hypotheses2.14 Deductive Logic2.15 Models and Simulations2.16 The Nature of Science2.17 The Science of Nature2.18 Chaos Theory2.19 Scientific NotationAdditional Reading3 - THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD AND ITS USEAbstractKeywordsThings to KnowThe Scientific Method3.1 A Linearized Approach to the Scientific Method3.2 Data Collection – Experimentation, Measurement, Observation 3.3 Ideas, Persistence, Documentation, Testing, Reproducibility, Publication3.4 Hypotheses3.5 Theories 3.6 Newton’s Laws of Motion 3.7 The Peer-Review Process3.8 Use of the Scientific Method3.8.1 James Hutton and Uniformitarianism3.8.2 Charles Darwin and the Origin of Species3.8.3 James Watson and Francis Crick – the Structure of DNA3.8.4 Harry Hess and Plate Tectonic Theory3.8.5 Plate Tectonic Theory3.8.6 Wallace Broecker and the First Use of the Term Global Warming3.9 Use of the Scientific Method in Climate Change Science3.9.1 Joseph Fourier and the Greenhouse Effect3.9.2 John Tyndall and Thermal Radiation3.9.3 Svante Arrhenius and Carbon Dioxide3.9.4 T. C. Chamberlin and the Ice Ages3.9.5 Guy Stewart Callendar and Rising Temperatures3.9.6 Gilbert Plass and Doubling of Carbon Dioxide3.9.7 Hans Suess and Carbon-14 in Carbon Dioxide3.9.8 Roger Revelle and Ocean Chemistry 3.9.9 Charles David Keeling and CO23.9.10 Syukuro (“Suki”) Manabe and Climate Modeling3.9.11 James Hansen and Temperature Analysis3.9.12 William Ruddiman and Paleoclimate3.9.13 Gavin Schmidt and GISS3.9.14 Stefan Rahmstorf, Sea Level and Temperature RiseAdditional ReadingPART II – OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE4 – EARTH’S ENERGY BUDGETAbstractKeywordsThings to KnowIntroduction4.1 Weather and Climate4.2 Solar and Heat Energy4.3 Earth’s Radiation Laws4.4 Earth’s Energy ImbalanceAdditional Reading5 – CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDSAbstractKeywordsThings to Know5. Climate Change Trends5.1 Rising Temperatures5.1.1 Temperature Scales5.1.2 Temperatures Shown by Graphs5.1.3 Rising Land and Sea Temperatures5.1.4 Tropospheric Warming and Stratospheric Cooling5.2 Sources of Uncertainty with Temperature Data5.3 Climate Construction from Instrumental Data5.4 Measurement of Temperature5.5.1 Global Temperature from Meteorological Stations5.5 The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) Study5.6 Land Temperatures from Boreholes5.7 Rising Sea Temperatures5.7.1 Relative Distribution of Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs)5.7.2 Ocean Heat Content5.8 Melting Ice5.8.1 Permafrost, Methane, and Clathrates5.8.2 Methane Clathrates5.9 Rising Sea Level5.10 Migration of Plants and Animals5.11 Species Extinctions5.12 Human Health Effects of Rising Temperatures5.13 Attribution5.14 Greenhouse Gases 5.15 Human Fingerprints on Global Warming5.16.1 Earth’s Cooling Upper Atmosphere5.16.2 Rising Tropopause 5.16.3 Less Heat Escaping to Space5.16.4 Nights Warming Faster than Days5.16.5 Winter Warming Faster than Summer5.16.6 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in Coral 5.16.7 Shrinking Upper Atmosphere5.16.8 Less Oxygen in the Atmosphere 5.16.9 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in the Atmosphere 5.16.10 More Heat Returning to Earth 5.16.11 Pattern of Ocean Warming 5.16 Components of the Climate Change Process5.17 Other Effects of Global Warming5.18 Forcings and Feedbacks in the Climate System5.18.1 Forcings5.18.2 Positive and Negative Forcing and their Effects5.18.3 Feedbacks5.19 Climate SensitivityAdditional Reading6 – EARTH’S SURFACE TEMPERATUREAbstractKeywordsThings to Know6. Introduction6.1 Tipping Points6.2 Temperature Records6.3 Data Reduction6.4 Data Analysis6.5 Climate Data Analysis Tools (CDAT)6.6 Data Reporting6.7 Average Land Temperatures6.8 History of the Development of the Global Average Temperature6.9 Current Analysis Method6.10 Temperature Anomalies6.11 History of Temperature Recordings6.12 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)6.13 Projections of Future Temperatures6.14 The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), 2007Additional Reading7 – CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AS EARTH SCIENCEAbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction7.1 Climate Science as Earth Science7.2 The Faint Young Sun Paradox7.3 The Gaia Hypothesis7.4 Introduction to Life Science7.5 Introduction to the Atmosphere7.6 Open System Science7.7 Uniformitarianism and Climate Change Science7.8 Recent Climate Data and Future Projections7.9 Components of the Climate Change System7.10 Good Science, Bad Science, and Non-Science7.11 Examples of Good Science7.12 Examples of Bad Science  7.13 Examples of Non-Science7.14 Ethics in Science7.15 The Concept of Scale in Earth and Climate Change Science7.16 Map Scales7.17 Fractals7.18 Graph Scales7.19 Time Scales7.20 Earth Scales7.21 Planetary Scales7.22 Cosmic ScalesAdditional ReadingPART III – EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE8 – INTRODUCTION TO EARTH’S ATMOSPHEREAbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction8.1 The Atmosphere8.2 Composition of the Atmosphere8.2.1 Carbon Dioxide8.2.2 Methane (CH4)8.2.3 Nitrous Oxide (N20)8.2.4 Ozone (O3)8.2.5 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)8.2.6 Other Trace Gases8.2.7 Aerosols8.3 Lapse Rate8.4 Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere8.5 Atmospheric CirculationAdditional Reading9 – CARBON DIOXIDE, OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES, AND THE CARBON CYCLEAbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction9.1 Carbon Dioxide (CO2)9.1.1 The Keeling Curve9.2 The Carbon Cycle9.3 Carbon Dioxide and the Carbon Cycle9.4 Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide9.4.1 Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide9.4.2 Oxidation – Reduction of Carbon9.4.3 Sinks of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide9.4.4 Carbon Cycle Disequilibrium9.4.5 Restoring Carbon Cycle Equilibrium9.5 Methane (CH4)9.5.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Methane9.6 Nitrous Oxide9.6.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide9.6.2 Increases in Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Concentration9.7 Halocarbons9.7.1 Sources and Sinks of Halocarbons9.7.2 Increases in Atmospheric Halocarbons Concentration9.8 Ozone9.9 Other Trace Gases9.10 Atmospheric Residence Time of Greenhouse GasesAdditional Reading10 - EARTH’S ALBEDO, RADIATIVE FORCING AND CLIMATE CHANGEAbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction10.1 Earth’s Albedo10.1.1 Solid Earth Albedo10.1.2 Ocean Albedo10.1.3 Glacial Ice Albedo10.1.4 Water Vapor10.1.5 Cloud Albedo10.1.6 Deforestation and Albedo10.2 Radiative Forcing10.2.1 Factors Affecting Greenhouse Radiative Forcing10.3 Global Warming Potentials (GWPs)10.4 Calculation of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing10.5 Radiative Forcing of Ozone10.5.1 Stratospheric Ozone10.5.2 Tropospheric Ozone10.6 Aerosols10.6.1 Sources and Sinks of Aerosols10.6.2 Radiative Forcing by Aerosols10.7 Direct Radiative Forcing10.8 Indirect Radiative Forcing10.9 Total Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing: Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols10.10 Observed Climate Variations10.11 Clouds and their Impacts on Climate Change10.11.1 High-Level Clouds10.11.2 Mid-Level Clouds10.11.3 Low-Level Clouds10.12 Orographic RainfallAdditional Reading11 – ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND CLIMATEAbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction11.1 Atmospheric Circulation11.2 Insolation11.3 Air Flow Patterns11.4 Climate Change Effects on Atmospheric Circulations11.5 Extreme Weather Events11.5.1 Washington, D.C. Metro11.5.2 Binghamton, N.Y. 11.5.3 Allentown, PA. 11.5.4 Harrisburg, PA 11.5.5 Dayton, Ohio 11.5.6 Colorado Springs, Colo. 11.5.7 Tucson, Arizona. 11.6 Record Heat 11.6.1 Houston, Texas 11.6.2 Dallas, Texas 11.6.3 Phoenix, Arizona 11.6.4 Corpus Christi, Texas. 11.7 Record Cold 11.7.1 International Falls, Minn. 11.8 Record River Flooding 11.9 Tropical Storm Lee's Tornadoes 11.10 Other Meteorological EventsAdditional ReadingPART IV - THE WORLD OCEAN AND CLIMATE12 – THE WORLD OCEANAbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction12.1 The World Ocean12.2 Ocean Salinity12.3 Ocean Topography12.4 The World Ocean and Carbon Dioxide12.5 Ocean Acidification12.6 Oceanic Circulation12.6.1 Thermohaline Circulation Additional Reading13 – OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RISING SEA LEVEL AbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction13.1 Global Warming and Sea Level Rise13.2 Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Arctic Sea Ice13.3 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)13.4 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)13.5 Future Potential Sea Level Rise13.6 Ocean Heat Content13.7 El Niño – La Niña (or ENSO)Additional ReadingPART V – EARTH’S CRYOSPHERE AND RECENT CLIMATE HISTORY14 – GLACIERS AND THE LATEST ICE AGEAbstractKeywordsThings to Know14. Introduction14.1 Greenland Ice Sheet14.2 Antarctica14.3 Mountain Glaciers14.4 Ice Cores14.5 Stable Isotope Analysis14.6 Ice Cores and Proxies14.6.1 Dating Ice Cores14.6.2 Mountain Glacier Ice Cores14.7 The Ice Age14.7.1 History14.7.2 Climate Forcing by Orbital Variations14.7.3 Eccentricity14.7.4 Obliquity14.7.5 Precession14.8 Milankovitch Cycles and Ice Ages14.9 Solar Variations14.10 Questions not Explained by Milankovitch CyclesAdditional Reading15 – PERMAFROST AND METHANE AbstractKeywordsThings to Know15. Introduction15.1 Distribution15.2 Origin of Permafrost15.3 Methane Chemistry15.4 Future Projections for Permafrost and Methane15.5 Methane Gun HypothesisAdditional ReadingPART VI - LAND AND ITS CLIMATES16 CONTINENTS AND MOUNTAIN RANGESAbstractKeywordsThings to Know16. Introduction16.1 Continental Drift 16.2 Harry Hess and Sea-Floor Spreading16.3 Plate Tectonics16.3.1 Types of Plate Boundaries16.4 Continental Mountain Ranges16.5 IslandsAdditional Reading17 – CLIMATE CLASSIFICATIONSAbstractKey WordsThings to Know An Introduction to Climate Classification 17.1 Air Masses17.2 Modern Climate Classification 17.2.1 The Bergeron Climate Classification17.3 The Köppen-Geiger Classification17.3.1 Group A Climates17.3.2 Group B Climates17.3.3 Group C Climates17.3.4 Group D Climates17.3.5 Group E Climates17.4 The Thornthwaite Climate ClassificationAdditional ReadingPART VII - CLIMATE MODELS18 – TYPES OF MODELSAbstractKey WordsThings to Know Introduction18.1 Climate Models18.1.1 Simplifying the Climate System18.1.2 Boundary Conditions18.1.3 Climate Modeling Centers18.2 Types of Climate Models18.2.1 Box Models18.2.2 Energy Balance Models18.2.3 Radiative-Convective Models18.2.4 Statistical-Dynamical Models18.2.5 General Circulation Models 18.3 Confidence and ValidationAdditional ReadingPART VIII – CLIMATES OF THE PAST (PALEOCLIMATOLOGY)19 – ANCIENT CLIMATES AND PROXIESAbstractKeywordsThings to Know Introduction19.1 Historical Records19.2 Ice Cores19.3 Stable Isotope Analysis19.4 Ice Cores and Proxies19.5 Dating Ice Cores19.6 Dendroclimatology19.7 Ocean Sediments19.8 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Biogenic Material19.9 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Terrigenous Material19.10 Terrestrial Sediments19.11 Periglacial Features19.12 Glacial Fluctuations19.13 Lake-Level Fluctuations19.13.1 Russia’s Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake E)19.14 Pollen Analysis19.15 Sedimentary RocksAdditional Reading20 – CLIMATES OF THE RECENT PASTAbstractKey WordsThings to KnowIntroduction20.1 Holocene Climates20.2 Younger Dryas Cooling20.3 Mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum20.4 Late Holocene Neoglaciation20.5 Little Ice Age20.6 Medieval Warm Period20.7 Holocene Climate Forcing Mechanisms20.8 Coupled Internally-Externally Driven Climate Change20.9 Contemporary Climate ChangeAdditional Reading21 - PLEISTOCENE GLACIATIONSAbstractKeywordsThings to Know21. Pleistocene Glaciations21.1 Glacials and Interglacials21.2 Causes of Glacial Advances and Retreats21.3 Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum21.4 Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM)21.5 The Cooling Begins21.6 Formation of the Isthmus of Panama and the Freezing of the Arctic21.7 Other Influences and Possible Causes of Ice Ages21.8 Maximum Extent and Characteristics of Continental Glaciers21.8.1 The North American Ice Line21.8.2 Europe and Asia’s Continental Glaciation21.8.3 Southern Hemisphere GlaciationAdditional ReadingPART IX - FUTURE CLIMATES AND MITIGATION22 - PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATESAbstractKey WordsThings to KnowIntroduction22.1 Hotter - Global Warming22.2 Flatter – The Digital Age22.3 More Crowded – Population Increase22.3.1 Population and Demographics22.4 IPCC Projections of Future Climate Change 22.5 Politics and Global Warming22.5.1 Politicians and Their Views 22.5.2 Ronald Reagan22.5.3 Richard Nixon22.5.4 Barak ObamaAdditional ReadingPART X – SKEPTICS AND DENIERS OF GLOBAL WARMING23 - UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE DENIALAbstract   KeywordsThings to KnowIntroduction23.1 Basis for the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change23.2 Characteristics of Denial23.2.1 Fake Experts23.2.2 Cherry Picking23.2.3 Logical Fallacies23.2.4 Impossible Expectations23.2.5 Conspiracy Theories23.2.6 Denial Characteristics at a Psychological Level23.3 Drivers of Climate Denial23.3.1 Conservative Ideology23.3.2 Conservative Think Tanks23.3.3 Mainstream Media’s Balance-as-Bias23.3.4 Government23.3.5 Corporate Vested Interests23.3.6 Internet23.4 Responding to Climate Denial23.4.1 Familiarity Backfire Effect23.4.2 Overkill Backfire Effect23.4.3 Worldview Backfire Effect23.4.4 Alternative Explanation23.4.5 SummaryAdditional ReadingPART XI - SPECIFIC DECLARATIONS AGAINST CLIMATE SCIENCE AND CLIMATE SCIENTISTS24 - REBUTTALS TO CLIMATE MYTHSAbstract   KeywordsThings to Know Introduction24.1 Fake Experts24.1.1 A Petition of Tens of Thousands of Non-Experts24.1.2 A Contrarian Take on Climate Sensitivity24.2 Cherry Picking24.2.1 Warming at Over Two Hiroshima Bombs per Second24.2.2 Hockey Stick versus Hockey Team24.2.3 Sun and Climate Moving in Opposite Directions24.2.4 Human Emissions Upsetting the Natural Balance22.3 Logical Fallacies24.3.1 What does past climate change tell us?24.3.2 CO2 Lag – The Chicken and Egg Dilemma24.3.3 What Were Scientists Predicting in the 1970s?24.3.4 How a Trace Gas has such a Significant Effect24.4 Impossible Expectations24.4.1 What Lessons do we learn from Past Model Predictions?24.4.2 Science is never settled24.4.3 Uncertainty is Not Our Friend24.5 Conspiracy Theories24.5.1 Nine Climategate Investigations Across Two Countries24.5.2 Confusing ‘Mike’s Trick’ with ‘Hide the Decline’24.5.3 Tracking down Trenberth’s ‘Missing Heat’Additional Reading ABBREVIATIONSGLOSSARYAPPENDICESINDEX